How to Read the Market Without Guessing

Most Investors Get This Wrong

Every few weeks someone will ask me
“Matt what do you think the market is doing?” or
“Is now a good time to buy?” or
“Should I wait for a correction?”

Here is the truth.

Most investors use the wrong tools to answer those questions.
They rely on headlines, hype or the mood inside a Facebook group.
That is not market research – it’s noise.

If you want to move with confidence you need a different approach.
A calm one.
A practical one.
One that relies on real indicators not opinion.

The Simple Filters That Actually Matter

Property markets move in cycles but the smartest investors do not watch the cycle they watch the pressure points under the surface.

Here is what you should be looking at:

1. Days on Market

Shorter DOM means buyers are active.
Longer DOM means you need to be more careful with your resales.

You will never see this on the news but it is one of the strongest real time signals in any suburb.

2. Builder Availability

Builders are harder to secure than ever which tells you the real story of the market.

Construction prices are still climbing.
Labour is stretched.
The Olympics are coming.
Infrastructure projects are rolling out across SEQ.
Everyone from civil crews to carpenters is booked solid.

That pressure flows straight into small developments.
If builders cannot take on new work or if they are quoting six to twelve months out you know demand is hot.

If you are managing a subdivision or small build you need to understand this pressure point.
It is not just about price, it is about availability.
A builder who cannot start for ten months will blow your holding costs your feasibility and your timeline.

Builder sentiment is one of the strongest indicators of market movement and most investors never track it.

3. Council Processing Times

This one is HUGE.

Most people watch “prices”… I watch approvals.

When councils slow down, simple deals win because they move faster.

When councils speed up, larger deals become safer because the delay risk reduces.

Approvals tell you where the opportunities are, not the headlines.

4. Infrastructure and Local Projects

When a new road, school, shopping precinct or industry zone starts moving the smart money gets in early.

You don’tneed to land bank for twenty years, you just need to understand where pressure is building and step in while everyone else is still watching.

5. What Buyers Are Actually Asking For

Agents will tell you the truth if you know what to ask.

Three questions I always ask – every single time

“What type of property is selling fastest right now”
“Who is buying in this pocket”
“If you had to buy one street today which one would it be”

Those answers are worth more than any headline.

Why Guessing Destroys Momentum

Guessing leads to hesitation and hesitation kills deals.

When you don’t understand the real indicators you stop moving and you start waiting for the perfect moment… which never comes.

I have seen investors sit on the sidelines for years not because the market was bad but because they were listening to the wrong data.

When you understand how to read the market properly the fear drops, clarity rises and you start making decisions again.

A Real Mentoring Moment

A mentoring client came to me last year convinced the market was cooling. He was watching news headlines and the tone in his online groups was full of doom.

So we looked at the real signals.

DOM was dropping.
Approvals in the council had slowed, which favoured simple subdivisions.
First home buyer enquiry was rising.
Builders were booked out for months.

He ended up buying a clean one into two site and wrapped the whole thing up in under nine months with a strong result.

He moved because he trusted the data – not the noise.

The Calm Approach to 2026

If you want to read the market without guessing focus on

✔ Real activity not headlines
✔ Approvals not predictions
✔ Builder sentiment not social media sentiment
✔ What buyers are doing not what commentators are saying

This is how you stay grounded in any cycle.

It is not complicated you just need a system and the discipline to ignore the noise that distracts everyone else.

A Thought for Those Wanting More Clarity

Inside my Inner Circle Mentoring (ICM) we spend a lot of time on this exact process.
– Understanding pressure points.
– Learning how to see risk early.
– Knowing when a suburb is warming up or cooling down before it shows on the charts.

If you want to build that kind of confidence this year you can email me directly and I will put you at the front of the early list of our next intake.

No pressure just an option if you are ready to stop guessing and start making clearer decisions.

Final Reflection

The investors who win in 2026 will not be the ones with the best predictions.

They will be the ones with the best process.

Read what matters, ignore what doesn’t and trust the indicators that never lie.